2024 – John’s Stock Market Predictions
Santa Claus Delivers/John’s Predictions for 2024/Hey, I Need Your Help…
In 1968, Yale Harsch introduced the concept, or the phenomenon, of the Santa Claus Rally. It was a rally held in the last couple of weeks of December. While it does not work every year (nothing does), it sure worked this year. The long-term investor in 2023 who did not get head faked out of the market was rewarded as they should be.
John’s 2024 Prediction
Well, it’s about that time when everybody starts making their stock market predictions for 2024. Well, here’s my two cents. The market’s going to go up, and it’s going to go down. Hey, I can’t go wrong with that one, right? Keep reading on to get the real prediction.
Data points
Based on data points, not your Aunt Nervous Nelly, who tells you over the holidays every year that the stock market is going to crash and it’s going to be like the Great Depression. Instead, let’s look at some recent data points:
• Interest rates are not only not going to be rising, but they will be actually going down. I believe this will stimulate the housing market because there is so much pent-up demand. People weren’t moving and weren’t buying because of the close to 8% mortgage rate, but I believe as rates get closer to 5 or 6%, they will.
• Also, the ancillary industries that are directly related to the housing market, whether it’s construction, manufacturing, furniture, concrete, timber, copper, refrigerators… these industries will pick up, and unemployment will go even lower.
• Speaking of unemployment, it’s already historically low, and you know what they found about the consumer? As long as they have no fear of losing their jobs, they will keep spending.
• This is the real biggie. The Fed is seemingly not going to be raising rates, but indeed, the prediction is to lower rates two to four times this year.
• The onshoring boom of bringing back factories to the U.S. is up, and last year, it’s up a staggering 71% year over year, and over a two-year period, 131%. COVID taught us that we not only need to shorten the supply chain but also to move more of these important factories back to this country.
• Small and mid-cap stocks have joined the bull market party, which leads to a much broader market.
More importantly, I believe the fear of COVID has faded. Now, I’m not downplaying the severity of the virus. But after having it and watching everybody I know have it at least one time in 2023, we have just learned to live with it. The morbidity of sheltering in place, hiding in your house, being scared to even talk to people, much less going outside, had a tremendous effect on the psyche.
Just the optimism of going out and living life, enjoying the activities, can’t help but improve your optimism. If you’re going to be an investor, you’re normally an optimist, thinking that you’re going to be around sometime in the future to enjoy these funds. But if you are at home, sheltered in place, scared to move, it leads to some real pessimism, which I think is bad for investing. Now, I could be off base on this, but I don’t think so.
Age of Aquarius
I heard this song called Let the Sunshine In over the holidays by a band called the 5th Dimension. They were talking about the stars and moon being aligned. [1]
VERSE: When the moon is in the Seventh House, And Jupiter aligns with Mars, Then peace will guide the planets, And love will steer the stars
CHORUS: This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius, Age of Aquarius, Aquarius, Aquarius
My Final Prediction
I’m not sure if the stars and moon are aligned, but I think the data points for a good stock market in 2024, so here you go, drum roll, please… My prediction of the market return is 8 to 12%.
Thankful
You know, it seems like over the holidays, I always run into an investment advisor whom I’ve known my whole career. He’s about ten years older than me, and our conversation always centers on how lucky we both are to be in this investment advisory business. There’s no thought of retiring for him or for me. It’s a great business, not only monetarily but also because it allows me to do the things I want.
Over the decades, I’ve had the chance to help hundreds if not thousands of retirees to live not a worry-free retirement (because there’s no such thing) but worry less about their biggest fear, which is running out of money. And I know this because my clients tell me this on a weekly basis. Indeed, I get calls and letters from their loved ones saying things like thanks for taking care of my mom or dad. Furthermore, some of my clients are in their seventies and eighties, and I normally do three-way calls with not only them but also their children. Their children want to be involved, but they’re probably at the peak of their careers right now, and they’re probably still raising their own families. It’s just comforting to them to know that somebody is down here looking out for Mom or Dad. So, thank you greatly for letting me serve you.
I need your help.
Hey, I need your help. As many of you know, I get all my business from referrals. I’ve told the team in 2024, I think I’d like to bring in about 20 or 24 new clients. So, if you know:
- One or more of your children who have the bulk of their net worth in a 401k and are getting no help.
- Somebody you know is getting ready to retire, and they are wondering how to create income streams.
- A friend who just lost a spouse who took care of all the financials.
- Any person that you know who is not happy with their current advisor.
- If you have a good candidate call Margaret at our office, or email us.
Please send us the contact information so my office team can reach out to them. We may not do business with them, but we will treat them like we treat you.
It may not be the age of the Aquarius, but let’s have a great year!
Sincerely,
John Romano, CFP®
Office Phone #: 352-753-8590
Email: [email protected]
Data contained in this newsletter is obtained from what are considered reliable sources; however, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
John Romano, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, has over 30 years of experience in the financial field. John is a Registered Representative with Securities America, Inc. (a member of the FINRA and SIPC) and an Investment Advisor Representative with Securities America Advisors. He has prepared hundreds of reports for retirees to assist in their retirement income planning needs. He is dedicated to providing portfolio analysis, dividend and income information, and investment management services to retirees (and those preparing to retire) in The Villages, Florida, and throughout the United States. Securities are offered through Securities America, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC, John Romano CFP® Registered Representative. Advisory Services are offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. John Romano Investment Advisor Representative. Romano Income Strategies and Securities America are not affiliated. Trading instructions sent via e-mail may not be honored. Please contact my office at (352)753-8590 or Securities America, Inc. at (800) 747-6111 for all buy/sell orders. Please be advised that communications regarding trades in your account are for informational purposes only. You should continue to rely on confirmations and statements received from the custodian(s) of your assets. The text of this communication is confidential, and use by anyone who is not the intended recipient is prohibited. Any person who receives this communication in error is requested to immediately destroy the text of this communication without copying or further dissemination. Your cooperation is appreciated. Guarantees are based upon the claims-paying ability of the insurance company. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
References:
[1] https://genius.com/The-5th-dimension-aquarius-let-the-sunshine-in-lyrics